At a glance
- Weight, symptoms and clinical events are different outcomes.
- Relative risk reductions need absolute numbers and a time period.
- Trial evidence, UK authorisation and NHS funding are distinct.
Weight and measures of metabolic health
In SURMOUNT-1 and STEP 1, tirzepatide and semaglutide respectively produced greater average weight reduction than placebo alongside lifestyle support. These were separate studies, with different treatment regimens; their results should not be treated as a direct contest. [1][2]
Weight change can be expressed in kilograms or as a proportion of starting weight. A 10% change means 10 kg from a 100 kg starting weight but 12 kg from 120 kg. That arithmetic helps interpret a trial percentage; it does not set an individual goal or indicate which treatment to take.
Ask which outcomes matter in your own care: glucose, mobility, symptoms, blood pressure or another agreed measure. A useful review considers the reason for prescribing and the burden of treatment, rather than making every decision from one scale reading.
Semaglutide and major cardiovascular events
SELECT enrolled 17,604 adults with established cardiovascular disease, BMI of at least 27 and no diabetes. With semaglutide 2.4 mg injections, the composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal heart attack or non-fatal stroke occurred in 6.5%, versus 8.0% with placebo, over average follow-up of about 40 months. The hazard ratio was 0.80. [3]
The often-quoted 20% relative reduction is not a 20-percentage-point absolute reduction. Subtracting the observed event proportions gives 1.5 percentage points, or approximately 15 fewer people with an event per 1,000 participants over that follow-up. These figures describe a higher-risk study population, not a personal guarantee. [3]
Ask whether your circumstances match the trial before interpreting a headline as a reason to change treatment. A result with injected semaglutide should not automatically be assigned to every tablet or other molecule.
Tirzepatide and a specific form of heart failure
SUMMIT studied 731 people with obesity and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Tirzepatide reduced the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure: 9.9% versus 15.3% with placebo, with median follow-up of 104 weeks. The difference was driven mainly by fewer worsening-heart-failure events; the study did not establish a reduction in cardiovascular death considered alone. [4]
Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a specific diagnosis, not another name for general cardiovascular risk. The trial cannot answer whether tirzepatide treats every type of heart failure. Its evidence should be discussed within specialist care rather than used to stop existing heart treatment.
Kidney evidence needs the diabetes context
FLOW tested semaglutide 1 mg weekly in 3,533 people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease meeting specified criteria. The primary composite outcome included kidney failure, substantial loss of kidney function, or kidney-related or cardiovascular death. It occurred less often with semaglutide, with a hazard ratio of 0.76. [5]
That is not evidence that a weight-management prescription reverses all kidney disease. The dose, underlying diabetes, kidney-disease severity and comparator belong in any summary. A clinician can explain whether a study addresses the decision being made for you.
Sleep-apnoea findings
SURMOUNT-OSA comprised two trials in adults with obesity and moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnoea: one group used positive airway pressure treatment and the other did not. At 52 weeks, tirzepatide reduced the frequency of breathing disturbances during sleep more than placebo. The trials did not establish long-term cardiovascular outcomes. [6]
Improved trial measurements do not tell an individual that they can stop CPAP. Discuss reassessment with the sleep service. Symptoms, objective testing and the existing treatment plan all need consideration.
Liver disease: a conditional UK indication
The MHRA approved Wegovy injections in July 2026 for MASH with moderate-to-advanced liver fibrosis in adults. MASH involves liver inflammation and scarring associated with metabolic dysfunction. The authorisation is conditional because further confirmatory evidence is required. [7]
Keep that qualification when discussing benefits. Improvement in a trial measurement and proof of fewer long-term complications are not identical claims. The authorisation also does not mean that every person told they have fatty liver should receive this medicine.
Putting benefits beside harms and uncertainties
The cited pivotal trials were funded by the manufacturers. Funding should be disclosed, while study design, comparators and limitations still need assessment on their merits. Common digestive effects and rarer serious reactions must be weighed alongside potential benefit. [1][2][8]
For any new claim, ask whether it is a randomised trial, an observational association, a subgroup analysis or a prediction from a risk model. Check whether the outcome was planned in advance and whether the relevant population resembles you. Bring the actual source to a consultation if the finding could affect a treatment decision.
NICE guidance treats medicines as part of broader care. Evidence of benefit is a reason for an informed clinical discussion, not a reason to bypass assessment, abandon other prescribed treatments or promise a guaranteed outcome. [9]
Questions and answers
Do benefits apply to every GLP-1 medicine?
Does a 20% relative reduction mean 20 fewer events in every 100 people?
Can I stop CPAP or heart medicines after losing weight?
Sources
Sources consulted for this editorial update: 28 October 2026. Follow the link for the source’s own revision date.
- SURMOUNT-1: tirzepatide once weekly for obesityRandomised trial, 2022; adults without diabetes, lifestyle support, 72 weeks. Funded by Eli Lilly.
- STEP 1: once-weekly semaglutide in adults with overweight or obesityRandomised trial, 2021; semaglutide 2.4 mg injection, adults without diabetes, 68 weeks. Funded by Novo Nordisk.
- SELECT: semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in obesity without diabetesPrimary trial, 2023; established cardiovascular disease, BMI at least 27, no diabetes; 2.4 mg injection. Funded by Novo Nordisk.
- SUMMIT: tirzepatide for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and obesityPrimary trial; 731 participants, median 104-week follow-up. Funded by Eli Lilly.
- FLOW: semaglutide in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney diseasePrimary trial, 2024; semaglutide 1 mg injection in a defined diabetes and kidney-disease population. Funded by Novo Nordisk.
- SURMOUNT-OSA: tirzepatide for obstructive sleep apnoea and obesityPrimary NEJM trial publication, 2024; two 52-week trials in adults with obesity and moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnoea. Funded by Eli Lilly.
- MHRA: semaglutide injection approved for a form of liver disease3 July 2026; conditional authorisation for MASH with moderate-to-advanced fibrosis, requiring further confirmatory evidence.
- MHRA: strengthened acute pancreatitis warnings29 January 2026 Drug Safety Update; urgent symptoms, stopping on suspicion and no restarting after confirmed pancreatitis.
- NICE: medicines and surgery for overweight and obesityNG246, updated January 2026; medicines are part of a broader care plan and NHS criteria differ by medicine.
This page is general information for UK readers. It cannot tell you which medicine or dose is suitable for you. Read the scope and limits.